The 2018 China Automobile Forum officially opened on April 4-26. The theme of this forum is: new era, new trends, new strategies. The host of this forum is Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and secretary general of China Automobile Forum Organizing Committee. Lin Qi, Chairman of Shanghai Remodeling Energy Technology Co., Ltd., delivered a keynote speech on “Commercial Exploration and Market Opportunities of Fuel Cell Vehicles †in the “Subsidiary Era, New Energy Vehicle Development Bottlenecks and Solutions†sub-forum. The following is a shorthand finishing of the meeting:
Lin Qi: Hello everyone, although the time is limited, as a fuel cell car in all aspects of today is different from the previous one I think is the industry that has developed relatively mature energy storage battery cars for more than ten years. Today, I will introduce myself first. I am Lin Qi, who is from reshaping technology. The theme of my speech today is "Commercial Exploration and Market Opportunities for Fuel Cell Vehicles."
It is well known that a fuel cell system is a power generation system that electrochemically reacts with hydrogen and oxygen to discharge water. It has three characteristics: zero emission, high energy density, high volume specific power density and high quality specific power density; third is long life.
Let's take a look at what happened in the fuel cell industry in the past year, especially in China. In fact, in the past more than 20 years, fuel cells have been in the stage of technology research and development, whether in North America or Europe or Japan and South Korea, in fact, have never given up the development of fuel cells.
In 2005, Toyota launched the first commercial fuel cell vehicle to give the industry a boost. From 2015 to last year, the industry has undergone great changes. In the last year of the year, the amount of investment in M&A in the global capital market for the fuel cell industry exceeded 10 billion. This may not be a particularly large figure compared to the traditional auto industry, but it is a very large number for fuel cells. More crucially, the scale of this over 10 billion investment mergers and acquisitions, China's capital exceeds 9 billion, indicating that in the capital market, the fuel cell industry has actually got the attention of the capital market, especially the Chinese capital market. The more industrial capital, including financial investment, listed companies are concerned about this industry, including listed companies such as China, Xiongyi, Dayang, Sansuo, Zhongtong, and Youfu, all of which are in this industry. Investment, including domestic and foreign investment. More famous is that Ocean Electric invested in Canada's 37-year-old fuel cell industry's leading Bard power system, becoming its single largest shareholder.
After talking about the capital market, it is actually a signal. Let's take a look at the market. A total of 6,000 fuel cell passenger cars were sold worldwide last year, a small number. Mainly Toyota's sales, plus modern and other companies, there are 1,500 fuel cell commercial vehicles sold in the global commercial vehicle segment, and 1,272 are in China. The number of 1272 sets is actually a very small number, but everyone knows that in 2016, the sales of fuel cell vehicles in the Chinese market should not exceed 30 units, so this is a very big increase. What I just described is a microcosm of the fuel cell vehicle industry in the whole world in 2017, that is, the capital market and the vehicle sales.
In China, there are actually more than 9 billion investment mergers and acquisitions, what is the situation in the Chinese market and China? In fact, starting from 2016, from the energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap, the Chinese market will build 100 sandwich stations in 2020, there will be 50 million vehicles, 2030 is 1000 Jiaqing, and there are 1 million fuel cells. promotion of.
At the same time, after 2017, after such a plan was made at the national level in 2016, in September 2017, Shanghai took the lead in releasing the development plan of Shanghai fuel cell vehicles from the local government level, which was divided into three stages: The first stage is that by 2020, this industrial chain will generate 15 billion production value in Shanghai, and 5-10 hydrogen refueling stations will be built. Two passenger vehicle demonstration areas will be built, with a scale of more than 3,000 vehicles. The output value will be 2025. It has reached 100 billion, the sales of passenger cars have reached 20,000, and the sales of special vehicles can reach 10,000. From 2026 to 2030, the output value of the entire industrial chain exceeded 300 billion yuan. This was released in September 2017 in Shanghai. Immediately after January 2018, more and more local governments in China, including Suzhou, Xi'an, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Foshan, have issued plans for the development of hydrogen fuel cells. For example, Suzhou, Suzhou hopes to reach 10 billion in output value by 2020, and 800 fuel cell commercial vehicles can be put into use at the government level and public transportation. By 2025, Suzhou hopes to reach an output value of 50 billion, and it can have 10,000 fuel cell vehicles to serve the government or public transportation. Foshan should have released a five-zone linkage plan in the first two weeks. In the two years from 2018 to 2019, 10 hydrogen refueling stations will be built to serve 2,000 fuel cell buses in five districts of Foshan. . From this point of view, in fact, at the national level, fuel cells have been done as a national strategy, and the cooperation and response of various local governments have become more and more active.
When it comes to the sales of vehicles, we can't do without hydrogen replenishment. There are more than 300 hydrogen refueling stations in the world, most of them in Japan, South Korea, Europe and North America, and only one in South America. This number just heard Korea. The president of the Automobile Industry Association said that in fact, South Korea has a corresponding plan. This plan should not be counted in this 118-seat. This figure has been completed by 2017.
What is China? Before 2015, China should have only three hydrogen refueling stations nationwide, one in Beijing, one in Shanghai, and one in Zhengzhou. The blue on the map is already in operation. This happened in 2017. There are already 13 hydrogen refueling stations in operation. They are in Shanghai, Changshu and Nantong, and two more in Shanghai. Including Zhongshan, Foshan, Chengdu, Shiyan, Yunfu and other places, there are already 20 buildings under construction. I believe this number will exceed 100 by 2019.
So with the car and the station in general, fuel cell vehicles in the world, including in China, is a gradual trend, both in terms of vehicle and hydrogen refueling stations, they have received national government levels and localities. There is a lot of attention at the government level and at the capital level.
Next, I will briefly introduce reinventing technology and reinventing technology to nearly three years of entrepreneurial companies, focusing on the engineering services of fuel cell vehicles and the development of fuel cell products. In July 2017, the production base of the fuel cell system was officially put into operation, with an annual output of 5,000 units and an expansion of 20,000 units. In 2017, we and the Dongfeng Specialist (sound) launched 500 fuel cell vehicles in the Chinese market, 500 in Shanghai, 30 in Guangdong and 20 in Hubei. In particular, the 500 fuel cell logistics vehicles in Shanghai have become a demonstration run for a single 500-single commercial vehicle in the world. These cars are gradually serving the major e-commerce and express delivery industries. We have chosen to enter the market of fuel cell commercialization from logistics vehicles, mainly due to several considerations: First, the commercial space is relatively flexible for fuel cell systems; second, the format of the hydrogen refueling station for fuel supply. Inside, his operation route is relatively simple and relatively fixed, so it is called fixed-point alignment, so the layout requirements for the hydrogen refueling station are relatively small. Third, the promotion of fuel cell in urban public transportation and logistics distribution has certain promotion significance; It is to promote the construction of hydrogen infrastructure through the commercial vehicle market, paving the way for the future passenger car market.
We think that it is different from overseas. The layout of fuel cell vehicles around the world starts from passenger cars. Whether it is Toyota or Honda, modern or Mercedes-Benz, it is a passenger car, then in China. The market we choose to open from commercial vehicles, where is the challenge? I think the biggest challenge is in durability. Everyone knows whether the bus is running or the logistics car is running. In fact, there is a big challenge to the life. So far, we have done it on the bench experiment. The fuel cell system has been tested for more than 2,500 hours. At 2,500 hours, we did a test. The overall attenuation is 1.45%. We expect the system to decay by no more than 10% at 12,000 hours, about 8. 1% look. At the same time, we have 12 fuel cell logistics vehicles to do the durability test of conventional roads. The total has exceeded 150,000 kilometers, and the current attenuation is no more than 1%. Therefore, according to the durability test of our roads, we expect the entire life to exceed 400,000 kilometers, and the attenuation of the system will not exceed 10%, which is about 7.8%. Although the number of samples in these two trials is not enough, I feel that we are also very confident that the current remodeling system can basically meet the needs of commercial vehicles.
Therefore, thinking about the future car must be the electrification route, and I want to reach a consensus on a global scale. For a fuel cell system that is also an electric drive platform for an electrification system, I think there is more advantage in that the fuel cell system is not sensitive to the load of the vehicle, its mass is higher than the power and volume ratio, and its fuel is relatively high. The refilling time is very short and the fuel can be replenished in about 3-5 minutes. In this way, its cruising range and load will be relatively longer and heavier, so we think that the advantages of fuel cells are more suitable for large load applications and medium and heavy commercial vehicle applications.
Based on these considerations, we feel that the current e-commerce and logistics distribution industry in China is developing rapidly, especially in the case of large-scale and ultra-large cities with greater demand for the logistics and distribution industry, and also for the urban environment. Under the premise of the requirements, the fuel cell logistics vehicle is a good application to fill the gap in the current long-life and high load of new energy vehicles. Therefore, we also made an analysis. In the current logistics industry, it is divided into ABC third line, and below 200 kilometers is the field of energy storage battery. In the area where the branch line is the distribution point to the business outlet, it is more suitable for the use of fuel cell vehicles. For longer distances, from the long-term endurance and ultra-high load between the cities, we also believe that fuel cell vehicles have more advantages. Why didn't you write? This is because there is still a limit to the current cost of high-power fuel cells.
Therefore, we also found the corresponding customers in the demonstration operation project of 500 fuel cell vehicles in Shanghai. We have been doing trials on the corresponding vehicles. For example, in the Jingdong area we saw in the above picture, Jingdong currently uses the fuel cell logistics vehicle in the Jingdong Asia No. 1 warehouse and then to the Jingsuo Industrial Company to have a logistics warehouse center, and then return to the Jingdong Asia No. 1 warehouse, one day fixed like this. The route requires 2-3 times, and the single operating mileage is 128 kilometers, so that fuel cell vehicles can meet their application conditions. You can see that in this application, JD.com is currently using more and more vehicles, and they have been trialing for nearly three months. In this picture, you can see that the basic path is fixed-point alignment. Every day, the repeated paths are all gone. Therefore, when the same path is used day after day, in fact, the construction of a hydrogen refueling station within this area can satisfy the application of about 200 fuel cell vehicles.
Another customer like Shentong, Shentong's single mileage is about 30 kilometers, so he is 5-6 miles a day, very suitable for their application. Three days of charging a hydrogen can satisfy their application, and their route is relatively fixed.
I won't go into details. In short, there are more and more demonstrations in Shanghai like Shentong, IKEA, Jingdong, and Yunda. More logistics customers are willing to use fuel cell vehicles, second. It can enter the city, and the second can meet the needs of long battery life and high load.
From the previous thinking to the real data display in the hands of customers, and our more practice, we are more confident that in the field of commercial vehicles, fuel cells must be able to truly deliver value to users, so we A series of products have also been planned, and we call them the Cavan series products in this field of fuel cell vehicle commercial vehicles. At present, we start to produce Cavan three 32kw ​​in batches. In June of this year, we started mass production of 46kw fuel cell system called Kavin IV. In the first quarter of next year, our CV 74kw fuel cell system for medium and heavy commercial vehicles will also reach Mass production, that is to say in reshaping technology we have a range of fuel cell system products for commercial vehicles.
We also have corresponding plans. We feel that the application of fuel cell systems is two more critical factors in the commercial vehicle sector: one is the durability of the product and the second is the cost reduction. Because in fact, everyone knows that it is now driven by policy subsidies, we must consider whether subsidies will fall back or not when we survive, so we also made plans, from 2018-2025, during this time we are certain Under the market, the cost can be reduced to 80%, and the durability of the product can be 25,000 hours from the current 12,000 hours. I want to achieve these two key indicators. The fuel cell system can be truly long-term in commercial vehicles. It can continue to develop.
So we invested 500 cars in 2017. I think this number will grow very much before 2020. In order to face more commercial demonstration applications and a bigger test, we are this year. The first is that the investment is 30 million to establish a professional after-sales service center for fuel cell power systems in Shanghai and Foshan. This is to ensure the commercial demonstration operation of batch fuel cell vehicles in these two regions. Also explore how to build a service system that meets the standards of this type of application. Then we also invested 170 million in this year to establish our own fuel cell R&D and verification center in Shanghai. There will be 20 laboratories established and put into use in the first half of 2019. It is for more verification. Our fuel cell products meet the needs of a larger future market. Finally, we will release a 46kw fuel cell system product in June this year for medium-sized commercial vehicles.
Having said that, the more applicable field of fuel cell vehicles is a trend in the future of fuel cells. We can also see that we have more challenges in the early stage of such a market. We have divided this challenge from our perspective. Three categories:
First, the standard class. Just mentioned that the core value of a fuel cell vehicle is long battery life. Long battery life means you have to bring more hydrogen. Therefore, I think the current standard hydrogen gas system of 70Mpa in the hydrogen storage system needs to be broken. In the field of logistics, for the end users, they are more concerned about the operating costs, so we have to deduct the details from the storage and transportation of hydrogen, and deduct the cost to develop technology. There are also related standards for fuel cell vehicles that need to be improved.
Second, the resource class. The use of fuel cell vehicles is inseparable from the investment and operation of hydrogen refueling stations. At present, there is great pressure on the hydrogenation station in both approval and land use. Although we have 13 stations that we have already put into operation, there are 20 stations under construction, and there will be more in the future. Station, in fact, there is still a lot of need to be clear and optimized in this section, both in terms of approval and land type. Second, the self-developed parts and components have just mentioned that we have to reduce the cost by 80% in 2025. In the strategy of reducing costs, there is actually a strategy to realize the independent development and localization of key components of the fuel cell system. This is a key path to reduce costs. This piece also needs to be supported by supply chain and component manufacturers. The third is policy-oriented market pressure. Everyone knows that it is now a subsidy-driven market. After no subsidies or subsidies, this pressure must be affordable, and there must be a solution.
Third, cognitive classes. The first is the excessive interpretation of hydrogen safety. In fact, I think we are doing fuel cell presentations in various places, and we have to communicate. In fact, there are many governments and enterprises. In fact, there is doubt about the safety of hydrogen. The second is the social science of fuel cell technology. Because of the name of the fuel cell, they are called fuel cells. In fact, it is different from energy storage batteries. Then this understanding still needs to be improved by the community. It is actually A power generation device whose energy is actually stored in the hydrogen storage system. The third is the diversification of global technology routes. In fact, at present, whether it is Toyota or Honda, etc., because there is not enough market, it does not reflect competition. It is not particularly clear on the technical route, so I think it is also on the technical route. There is a need to identify 1-2 very clear technical routes in the future.
This is our three areas that are the biggest challenges for the industrialization and commercialization of fuel cell technology. Based on these three areas, we actually need more support from the government level and the industry. In this context, we have received more attention from the government and the association. We are in Guangdong on March 26 this year. Yunfu established the China Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance to set up a new club called Fuel Cell Branch. This club is to meet the corresponding challenges of fuel cell development in cooperation with enterprises, governments and various resources.
This club has gathered like fuel cell systems, stacks and components, hydrogen bottles and systems, vehicle companies, research institutes and universities, testing and certification institutions, equipment manufacturing, hydrogen refueling station equipment, hydrogen refueling station operations, vehicle operations, Product promotion, government departments, directors are reshaping technology, the governing unit is Tongji University, Shanghai Fuel Cell Commercialization Promotion Center, and the secretariat is set up to reshape technology. We also hope to promote the development of fuel cells through the strength of this chapter. . The main work of the club will focus on the development and implementation of the fuel cell industry development planning standards. Focus on common technology public relations and fuel cell industry services, and finally promote industrial cooperation and development. These efforts are also going to face the challenges of more and more fuel cell vehicle promotion and development. I also hope that this opportunity can sincerely invite more colleagues in the automotive field to pay attention to and join this chapter. Let's work together to promote this development of fuel cells in China and around the world.
With limited time, I will finish my report work quickly. Finally, I want to end my introduction today with such a commercial promotion video.
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