China Synthetic Rubber Industry Association recently stated that by the end of this year, the total capacity of China's main synthetic rubber equipment is expected to reach 3.33 million tons, ranking first in the world. The picture shows a company's thermoplastic rubber production site. (photo by Hu Qingming)
The year 2011 is a year in which China’s production capacity is “first in the worldâ€.
The data at the beginning of the year shows that China’s manufacturing output value exceeded that of the United States in 2010, ranking first in the world. Also in this year, China's chemical industry output reached 5.23 trillion yuan, which surpassed that of the United States and ranks first in the world. According to rough statistics by the reporter, China's petroleum and chemical industries have the output of more than 40 kinds of products ranking first or second in the world. Among them, nitrogen fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, soda ash, caustic soda, sulfuric acid, calcium carbide, pesticides, dyes, tires, methanol, synthetic resins, synthetic rubber, and synthetic fibers rank first in the world.
But at the same time, these "world's first" have brought China a heavy burden: overcapacity, energy consumption, environmental pollution, repeated anti-dumping ... China may become the country that suffered the most anti-dumping investigation for the 17th consecutive year. .
According to the United States research institute HIS, the world’s number one achievement has reached a total of 10 trillion US dollars in world manufacturing output in 2010. Among them, China accounted for 19.8% of the world's manufacturing output, slightly higher than the US's 19.4%. And the world's largest manufacturing throne, the United States has been retained until 1895 until 2009. Some scholars also cited the statistics of the United Nations and found that according to the exchange rate at the beginning of 2011, China’s manufacturing output value was US$2.05 trillion, while US manufacturing production was US$1.78 trillion.
Manufacturing capacity is production capacity. In any case, in terms of data alone, manufacturing exceeds the United States in terms of output value, which is a good news for the Chinese. Many analysts call it "historical transcendence."
It is said that China is not the first time that it has become the global manufacturing industry. In 1830, China’s manufacturing output once accounted for 30% of the world's output, but the subsequent Opium War broke out. Since then, China has spent more than 180 years catching up.
More detailed data can support the "world first" of China's production capacity.
For example, from basic industrial data, China's crude steel production in 2010 was 627 million tons, accounting for 44.3% of the world's total output, surpassing the sum of the 2nd to 20th; cement production 1.868 billion tons, accounting for 60% of the world's total output; Production of 3.24 billion tons, accounting for 45% of the world's total output; fertilizer production accounts for 35% of the world; chemical fiber production accounts for 42.6% of the world ... ... Can be said that in addition to petroleum, ethylene, China's basic industrial production capacity are mostly among the best.
In terms of specific products, China’s transcripts are also outstanding. In chemical products alone, nitrogen fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, soda ash, caustic soda, sulfuric acid, calcium carbide, pesticides, dyes, tires, methanol, synthetic resins, synthetic rubber, synthetic fibers, terephthalic acid, polyvinyl chloride and other products rank first in the world. , The number of products up to dozens.
For any country, true wealth creation depends on having a strong production capacity. Experts said that China is in the middle and late stage of heavy chemical industry and has huge investment demand and production capacity. After China's accession to the WTO, many products have changed from relying on imports to exports. For example, in China's chemical fertilizer industry, it takes only a dozen years from the time it takes for imports to become a net export. Similar situations also include products such as methanol and chlor-alkali. These changes take decades or even longer abroad.
Jiang Yong, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, believes that while the manufacturing industry in the United States is still very strong, judging from the lessons learned from the financial crisis, their social elites are active in consulting, accounting, finance, corporate mergers and acquisitions, and media, while technology Innovation lacks talent pools, and engineers are marginalized, making the manufacturing industry a land of trees and water. This is exactly the opportunity for China. China should continue to maintain its strong position in production and manufacturing.
Although many industries in China are already the first in the world, their competitiveness is not strong. The picture shows a small chemical company with poor facilities and backward technology. (photo by Liu Shaoren)
The "World's No.1" Loss The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently analyzed the market share and competitiveness of the global market of more than 100 countries, and China ranks first in the world.
However, the publishers have even more talked about the difficulties facing China's manufacturing industry. Jin Hao, director of the Institute of Industrial Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that China’s manufacturing has paid a staggering price behind its huge achievements. So many "world firsts" are almost all replaced with cheap labor and resources, and China is faced with tremendous environmental pressure.
Jiang Yong believes that when Britain, the United States, and Japan play the role of “world factoryâ€, they basically have the initiative in the international division of labor, and international resources are abundant and cheap. "Made in the United States" and "Made in Japan" are based on cheap oil, which is only a few dollars a barrel. However, China has encountered an era when oil prices have soared from tens of US dollars per barrel to a hundred and a few dozen US dollars. High oil prices have become the norm.
Moreover, a large number of production capacity that cannot be digested in the country has flooded the country, becoming the number one target of trade protectionism attacks in the world. As of the end of 2010, China has been the world’s country with the most anti-dumping investigations for 16 consecutive years, and has become the country with the most anti-subsidy investigations in the world for five years in a row. This year's "No. 1 in the world" may still be worn by China. According to statistics, only from January to September this year, China suffered 50 trade remedy surveys from around the world. Among them, large-scale developing countries have begun to noticeably increase their trade restrictions against China. Chemical products have always been the hardest hit by China's trade friction. In recent years, foreign countries have frequently conducted investigations on the “two opposites†(anti-dumping, countervailing) and “two guarantees†(safeguards measures, special safeguard measures) against Chinese chemical products. The products involved include caustic soda, soda ash, sodium bicarbonate, and phosphoric acid. Salt, carbon black, spandex, glyphosate, pesticide monomers, chemical raw materials, organic synthetic dyes, polyester staple fiber, sulfanilic acid, nitroaniline, polytetrafluoroethylene, tetrafluoroethane, melamine, Oxalic acid, barium carbonate, rubber additives, tires, etc. In 2010, China's petrochemical industry suffered a total of 15 cases of foreign trade relief investigations, which accounted for about 1/4 of the country's total annual total. At the same time, not only the United States, the European Union and other developed countries and regions have engaged in trade protection for China, and emerging economies and developing countries such as India, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, and Pakistan have also shunned China’s “world number oneâ€.
Yang Fan, director of the Institute of World Economics at the China University of Political Science and Law, stated that China’s current labor-intensive products are extensive, and that export growth is mainly driven by low prices and quantity, low product processing, low added value, and lack of brand names. The more of this low-end state, the more vulnerable to challenges. For example, in the case of the US Tire Special Security Project, the major products involved are all small cars and light truck tires sold by China to the United States. They are products with low added value, and a large number are OEM products. However, this measure has affected 30% of China's tire export market. In 2010 alone, it lost about $1 billion in exports. There are also pesticides industry. In recent years, China's pesticide products are frequently faced with anti-dumping from foreign countries. For example, the United States proposes an anti-dumping application against Chinese glyphosate and India imposes anti-dumping on China's diethyl thiophosphoryl chloride.
In general, the key to reflecting the manufacturing capacity of a country is the national equipment (equipment) manufacturing industry. However, due to the severe impact of foreign investment and imported equipment, China’s total social investment in fixed assets has two-thirds of investment in equipment, including 100% of optical fiber manufacturing equipment, 85% of integrated circuit chip manufacturing equipment, and 80% of petrochemical equipment. About 70% of cars, CNC machine tools, textile machinery and offset printing equipment are imported.
Professor Jia Genliang of the School of Economics at Renmin University of China believes that the outbreak of the financial crisis has made people realize that the world economy is a monopoly in the hands of multinational corporations. Through the “two-take-all†approach, they concentrated most of their revenues on monopolistic capital: On the one hand, multinational corporations ruled out competition in the final commodity market with a “vendor monopolyâ€; on the other hand, they were also producing at the same time. The market created a “buyer’s monopoly†that forced the prices of producer products in developing countries to continue to be depressed. The result of this cycle is that the results of technological progress are basically transferred in the form of profits to the hands of transnational corporations that are the middlemen in the world economy. This means that although China's "world first" has paid a lot, workers have not received corresponding income.
Rethinking the “No. 1 in the Worldâ€, people are more concerned about whether China’s huge “No. 1†can sustainably develop.
This year, prices of China's land, raw materials, and labor have risen. According to reports, some scattered "foreign" withdrawals have already occurred. According to report, in the Pearl River Delta region, a U.S. company that produces high-end baseball carbon fiber is preparing to relocate to the mainland. In addition, there are also some chemical fiber and plastic foreign companies that plan to move out of China. This shows that the international financial crisis has forced developed countries to re-examine their domestic industrial structure, explore the path of revitalization of the real economy, encourage high-end manufacturing to remain in the country, and even return from abroad to the domestic market, and a new round of global industrial transfer is emerging. Not long ago, U.S. President Barack Obama had already issued a call for home companies to return to their home country. The Boston Consulting Group’s report even predicts that 15% of U.S. companies targeting the North American market will “backflow†from China to the United States.
The people of insight pointed out that this shows that the “world's number one†that is spelled out by cheap labor and resources cannot be sustained, and China must change this mode of development as soon as possible.
“Some people are worried that the speed of China’s economy is declining, but this is at the same time as economic structural adjustment, efficiency, and quality improvement. It does not mean that the economy has problems.†Yang Fan said, “On the contrary, if the speed does not go down, the structure does not improve. It's a problem."
The reporter found a data: In 2007, the labor productivity of China's manufacturing industry (value added per worker) was only 1/5 of that of the United States.
There are many examples of reality. Only 15% to 20% of the "world's first" Chinese steel production is internationally advanced. The combined sales of Baosteel, Angang, Shougang and Wuhan Iron and Steel are only 63% of Nippon Steel. For another example, the output value of China's chemical industry is the largest in the world. However, from the list of Chinese companies that have entered the US$1 billion club this year, the sales revenue of the 14 Chinese chemical companies listed totaled US$137.9 billion, equivalent to only two BASF companies. The just released list of China Chemical Industry's top 100 exports in the first half of 2011 also shows that most of the foreign exchange earners can export chemical products.
And such a big gap is mainly determined by the level of technology.
At present, China's manufacturing is lagging behind in key production processes and core components, and its equipment level is low. Industry insiders estimate that 15 industries such as iron and steel, petrochemicals, coal, and building materials are generally 5 to 10 years behind the international level, and some are 20 to 30 years behind.
Statistics show that at present, almost all of the processed products in the chemical industry in China are in excess, the starting load for the devices is low, and resources are wasted. However, on the other hand, some of China's high-end petroleum and chemical products are in serious shortage, and the dependence on imports is very high. Some high-tech products are still blank. In 2010, China imported 31.21 million tons of organic chemicals and 30.69 million tons of synthetic fiber monomers, all of which hit historical highs.
China must make great efforts in its core technology. This is the only correct choice after the "first in the world" inventory.
High-end new materials, nylon chemicals, fluorine chemicals, special chemicals and other products are the future development direction of China's chemical industry. The picture shows a fine chemical production facility for a foreign company. (For CFP)
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