Guangzhou auto purchase restriction makes a surprise attack on excess investment or dilemma

“Nothing but waiting for concrete measures to be announced before, but it is certain that the sales have been seriously damaged.” For Guangzhou City, the policy of limiting the purchase of 120,000 vehicles a year, Guangzhou Automobile Group’s passenger vehicle company will meet on July 2nd. Only such results can be drawn.

In interviews with reporters, not only GAC passenger cars, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng Nissan and other companies with relatively heavy market share in South China, but also the mass brands that have made significant progress in the market in the past two years expressed similar meanings.

The majority of car companies in the expansion due to Guangzhou City's purchase policy was announced at 9:00 pm on June 30th, not only for consumers, but also for enterprises is a sudden attack, but before the car company's capacity expansion is further accelerated.

Dongfeng Nissan invested 5 billion yuan in the first phase of Dalian to build a north base with 150,000 full-capacity vehicles. The final production capacity of 300,000 yuan will require more investment. Dongfeng Yueda Kia also laid the foundation for its third factory in Yancheng, the first phase. The project will have a production capacity of 200,000 vehicles, and in 2015 it will reach 300,000 vehicles. In addition, the Beijing Hyundai Third Plant and the Dongfeng Honda No. 2 Plant will also be put into use in July. The Beijing Automobile Group’s Guangzhou Zengcheng Transformation Project and so on.

The purpose of these investments is undoubtedly to break their capacity bottlenecks and gain more market share, especially to increase their market share in vulnerable regions. If Dongfeng Nissan establishes a base in Dalian, Songyuan Shiming, general manager of the company, said that after the completion of the base, he hopes that the market share in Northeast China will reach at least double digits; and Shanghai General Motors' establishment of a plant in Wuhan and last year's FAW-Volkswagen's construction in Foshan, Guangdong also reported. Have the same purpose.

However, after the large-scale production of the company's production capacity, the city of Guangzhou introduced a purchase restriction policy. Zhang Zhiyong, a well-known automotive analyst in China, said that although the production capacity of most companies is not located in Guangdong, or even in South China, the demonstration effect of Guangzhou's purchase restriction will be more pronounced than in Beijing and Shanghai, and it will be dangerous to expand to major cities in the country. Can not be alone.

Zhang Zhiyong’s fear may be becoming a fact. Recently, it is reported that Zhengzhou, Henan Province, which is facing a breakthrough of 2 million vehicles, is also brewing automobile purchase restrictions. And cities like Guangzhou and Zhengzhou still have many in the country.

And the lost sales in these major cities cannot be recovered from the nearby lower-level markets. Liu Haoyuan, head of public relations at Guangqi Passenger Car Company, said that markets such as Foshan, Shunde, Dongguan, etc. near Guangzhou also have become saturated and cannot afford more sales.

Restrictions on purchases cannot change the overcapacity Industry insiders pointed out that if all major cities in the country are gradually taking total purchases, no matter what the specific measures are, cars will face the reality of overcapacity.

According to the “2012 Global Survey of Automotive Industry Executives” recently published by KPMG, China’s auto spare capacity has reached 6 million units in 2011, which is already twice the size of the German automobile market. It is estimated that by 2016, idle capacity will be idle. It will also rise to 9 million vehicles.

The report also analyzed that local governments and automakers are too aggressive about future capacity planning and are also directly putting pressure on capacity building. According to the latest plans of car manufacturers, by 2015, the top ten companies in sales will have a total production capacity of nearly 35 million vehicles. Together with the plans for the second-tier car companies, China’s total automobile production capacity will exceed 40 million, more than double Total sales in 2011.

This figure and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predict that "by 2015, the scale of automobile sales will reach 25 million vehicles" has a large difference, this or afternoon means that the future automobile industry will certainly have a serious overcapacity situation.

However, it can be seen that the recent capacity expansion is the national layout of big group and first-line joint ventures. Jia Xinguang, a well-known domestic automobile analyst, believes that if the above companies do not expand their investment, they will be at a disadvantage in the next market game.

In other words, even if there are restrictions on purchases throughout the country, the current layout of the automobile industry still needs to be completed. However, how to deal with this “dilemma” situation has really just begun to test the wisdom of automotive companies.