In September, the domestic industrial naphthalene market experienced a soaring market. From the end of August, the domestic mainstream transaction price rose from 4,600 yuan (ton price, the same below) to 7,000 yuan in mid-September, and the largest increase in a single month exceeded 50%. , set a new high during the year. However, after the booming market, the risks gradually accumulated. In late September, the market began to experience high levels of boycott and shrinking downward trend. At the end of September, there was a rapid decline in prices in some regions, which fell more than 6%. On October 8, the price has dropped to around RMB 6,400. . The market entered the stage of high risk release, and the attitude of traders and downstream enterprises was gradually increasing. The reason is mainly due to the shrinking demand, raw materials, and other factors caused by weak, and the sharp cooling of short-term speculation will play a negative role in the near future market trend can not be ignored, do not rule out the market's shock adjustment will continue.
Short-term demand contraction continues With the end of the industrial naphthalene surge, the market is back to rationality. The tension of the former source of futures has also been eased, and in the course of this round of rising prices, the stocks of traders in the hands have increased. When the rallies fell back, they basically stopped purchasing and actively shipped, but the downstream companies did not amplify the procurement plan. Relative market demand has decreased. For example, naphthalene-based water-reducing agents had increased demand in the previous real estate market, but the sharp rise in the previous round was mainly driven by the increase in industrial naphthalene prices. As housing prices rose across the country, they were again regulated and indirectly reduced the use of industrial naphthalene. Demand, and other markets such as refined naphthalene, naphthol to varying degrees to top down. In addition, it is about to enter the off-season consumer demand. In the short term, absolute demand will decline significantly, which will play a decisive role in the outlook.
The raw materials began to shrink in volume. The reporter learned from coal tar production enterprises in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Shandong, Hebei, and Henan that the early phase of coal tar (mainly high-temperature coal tar) experienced a round of unilateral price rises, and the high-level resistance atmosphere was obvious. The coal tar consumption season has gradually passed and will play a negative role in the trend of the market outlook. The possibility of price cuts will not be ruled out in the near future, and the rate will exceed 5%. However, due to the current severe restrictions on production of coking companies in China, it is unlikely that production will increase significantly in the short term, and it will provide basic support for the market. It is expected that there will be a greater possibility of slower growth.
No macroeconomic sustained benefits After the National Day, the softening of international crude oil increased the risk of lowering related chemical products. Under the background that the current price rises to a high level but there is no quantitative cooperation, the entire industry chain of industrial naphthalene will have a greater impact, and the associated effects of upstream and downstream will not be overlooked. It is not ruled out that there will be a market with price and no market. Once panic selling occurs, it will inevitably cause a big shock in the market. In addition, the domestic real estate favorable policy is not clear, the local project construction is currently planning more, less investment in construction, there are variables, once the negative factors are amplified, plus previous speculation space is too large factor, the full release of high risk It is an inevitable process.
Import growth is expected to continue According to statistics, in August, 2,887 tons of industrial naphthalene was imported, 9.5 times that of exports, and continued to grow in September. The main reason is that domestic prices have risen too fast and low-cost sources such as Japan, Ukraine, and Russia have quickly entered the domestic market. As domestic import companies have expired orders for external procurement due to high domestic prices in the previous period, some of the sources of goods will continue to arrive in Hong Kong in October, forming a restraining factor.
Although there is a large downward pressure on the short-term market after the National Day, based on the current situation in which the coking enterprises' production is limited by severe short-term changes, it is unlikely that large diving will occur on the basis that the production of industrial naphthalene will not increase significantly. At the same time, due to the reason that the downstream companies basically stopped purchasing the goods during the holiday period, there is no rule out for a stock market after the holiday, so the adjustment range of market shocks will also be limited, and it is expected that the pattern of box consolidation will transition to the October market.
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