In 2009, the challenges faced by China's tire industry were all-encompassing. Both the severe shrinkage of foreign markets and the huge blow to the US special security case. However, it is bizarre that, in addition to the market from January to February in 2009, the tire industry is booming in production and sales. All companies are almost fully loaded. The entire industry stocks have been greatly reduced, and the efficiency has increased substantially. Most tires The days of business are more moist. In short, the year-end inventory is a good news. Even more shocking is that from the beginning of this year's market, the strong momentum of production and sales in the tire industry has continued unabated, and many companies have indicated that the supply of products is in short supply, and it seems that this year's trend is not much worse. What is the reason for this? Is the tire industry really hot this year? Will it still be hot in the future? The reporter conducted an in-depth interview for this purpose.
The year-round running figures of the tire industry in 2009 were very good
According to estimates from the tire branch of China Rubber Industry Association, the national tire production in 2009 could reach about 380 million, an increase of about 8% over the previous year. Among them, the output of radial tires was 290 million, an increase of 11% over the previous year, and 80 million tires were biased, which was 8% lower than the previous year. The industry-wide profits and taxes are also higher than in 2008, much more than expected at the beginning of the year. The annual export value of the industry decreased slightly compared to the previous year, of which 44 key tire enterprises had their annual export delivery value decreased by 3.4% from the previous year, but the export volume of key domestic-funded enterprises had a higher increase.
Analysis of the reasons, the industry's views on why the 2009 tire market is so hot
First, the impact of the special safeguard case did not appear. As far as the case itself is concerned, the impact of the special security case on the tire industry in China is enormous. However, because we fully estimated the possible impact of the special safeguard case, at the same time, the relevant national departments and industry associations organized tire companies to actively respond, and the companies timely adjusted the product structure and export methods, and increased the development of the domestic market and resolved the The special protection case caused losses to the industry. In addition, due to the fear of U.S. dealers fearing the price increase after the implementation of the special security case, they have stepped up their orders to China before the special insurance ruling, resulting in various export companies working overtime and manufacturing, and exporting to the United States with high concentration before the end of August last year. A batch of tires. Therefore, despite the fact that China’s export of U.S. car tires was almost zero between September and October last year, and a small amount of exports were restored in November and December, the year-on-year reductions were not as large as expected.
Second, raw material prices are low for many years. When the financial crisis suddenly struck in 2008, not only the tire industry was greatly affected, raw material prices were even more severely affected, and natural rubber and other raw material prices continued to hit new lows. At the beginning of 2009, the spot price of natural rubber per ton in the domestic market was only around US$ 1,000, and it rose to about US$ 1,600 per ton in August and September. This is a low price that has never been seen in the past seven years. At the same time, due to the strong domestic sales, the sales price of tire products has not dropped, which makes tire companies make a big deal. In this way, the financial crisis not only did not affect the benefits of tire companies, but also allowed them to live a good life that had not been seen for many years. The report of the tire club shows that in 2009 the tire industry achieved a new high in more than ten years, and some corporate profits increased by two digits or even three digits year-on-year. In the middle of this, the low price of raw materials makes a huge contribution.
Third, the hot spot in the auto market. In 2009, domestic automobile production and sales reached 13.791 million vehicles and 13.6448 million vehicles, which was a year-on-year increase of 48.3% and 46.15% respectively. Among them, 10,383.8 thousand and 10,313,300 were produced and sold by passenger vehicles, an increase of 54.11% and 52.93% respectively over the same period of last year; commercial vehicles were produced and sold 3,407,200 and 3,133,500, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 33% and 28.39% respectively. The increase in the number of passenger cars of only 3.65 million vehicles will increase the demand for at least 18 million supporting passenger tires. In addition to the demand for truck-mounted tires and replacement of tires in the market, the domestic demand for new tires will be around 30 million last year. This not only diverted some of the tires with blocked outlets, but also increased the overall demand for tires.
Fourth, actively explore the international market outside the United States.
In recent years, it has been realized that "the eggs cannot be packed in one basket." Some domestic large tire companies have been adjusting the export market. The occurrence of the special security case made tire companies aware of the risk of concentration in the export market, and instead began to pay attention to the domestic market and open up more overseas markets. Although the financial crisis has caused a serious contraction in the foreign auto market, its market holdings are still there, the autos still have to run, and the tires have to be replaced. In the context of deteriorating market conditions and lower people’s income, China’s inexpensive tires are more suitable for ordinary people. Therefore, such as Hangzhou Zhongce, Triangle, Exquisite and other large car tire manufacturers, the special protection case not only did not hurt them, but accelerated their market structure adjustment.
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