In 2013, the total demand of China's auto market was approximately 20.8 million, of which passenger vehicle sales were approximately 16.8 million, an increase of 8.5%, and commercial vehicle sales were approximately 3.85 million, a growth rate of 1%. This is a bold prediction made by Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, based on the favorable factors and unfavorable factors in the development of the Chinese auto market.
Good five conditions
Shi Jianhua believes that there are five main factors driving the development of the Chinese auto market in 2013:
First, macroeconomic stability and progress will provide a good development environment for the automotive industry. The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year emphasized the efforts to expand domestic demand, promote steady investment growth and structural optimization, and maintain the overall tone of stability and progress. The continuity and stability of this policy will be conducive to the development of the automotive market.
Second, the new three bonuses provide support for the long-term development of the car. The three new dividends are: reform dividend, talent bonus, and urbanization bonus. These three dividends will further promote the development of the automobile industry while supporting the healthy development of the economy. The urbanization dividend will promote the automobile industry more directly. With the advancement of urbanization, the automobile consumption demand will expand and the market space will be broader. .
Third, rigid demand for automobiles remains strong. The rigid demand for first-tier cities still exists, and there is still great demand in the vast second and third-tier cities and villages.
Fourth, the upgrade of auto consumption will promote the growth of auto consumption. The report of the 18th National Congress proposed that we must strengthen people's livelihood protection, reform of income distribution and income doubling plan, and raising the disposable income of consumers will certainly promote the purchasing power of automobiles.
Fifth, China's auto exports will continue to maintain a relatively large market growth. The international competitiveness of China's auto companies has been increasingly strengthened, and the image of Chinese auto brands has also been gradually improved. With the improvement of corporate strength, product quality and after-sales service quality, China's auto export volume will maintain stable and rapid growth in the future.
Four negative factors
Shi Jianhua said that there are also four inhibitory factors in China's auto market in 2013:
First, the global economy has picked up slowly. The world economic situation is still very complicated on the whole, and the uncertainty and instability of the recovery still exist. The development of the Middle East and North Africa is unstable, and geopolitical changes may cause the international oil price to fluctuate at a high level, which will also have a deterrent effect on the auto market demand.
Secondly, in the future, China will pay more attention to the quality and benefits of economic growth. It will continue to change the mode of economic growth and continuously optimize the economic structure to achieve growth. This will change the development trend of past scales and reduce the direct investment of project investment in the auto market. .
Third, environmental and energy transportation and other issues restrict the sustainable and healthy development of the automotive industry. At present, China's human-oriented automotive environment system has not yet been established. In the face of ensuing environmental pollution, traffic congestion and parking difficulties, some city managers use simple, temporary, and restrictive methods to solve problems. To a certain extent, it will curb car consumption demand.
Fourth, the rise of international trade protectionism will also have an adverse impact on China’s auto exports. Due to the increasing international competitiveness of China's auto products and the rapid growth of exports, some countries set trade barriers on China’s auto products and restrict Chinese auto exports to these markets, which will have an adverse impact on China’s exports.
Total demand is approximately 20.8 million vehicles
Based on the above analysis, Shi Jianhua boldly predicted the 2013 auto market.
In 2013, the total demand of China's auto market was about 20.8 million vehicles. This market demand is equal to the total sales volume of Chinese cars minus exports plus imports. The specific breakdown models are as follows:
First, the passenger car market forecast. Looking at the car first, the car market will maintain a steady growth. It is expected that the sales volume will be 11.55 million units, with a growth rate of around 7.5%. The market demand for SUVs is still strong. It is expected that the sales volume will be 2.46 million units, a growth rate of 23%. The market demand for MPV is insufficient. It is expected that the sales volume will be basically the same as in 2012, with about 490,000 vehicles. The demand for cross-type passenger vehicles remains at a low level, and the sales volume is expected to be 2.3 million, with a growth rate of about 2%. Based on the above forecast of passenger vehicles, passenger car sales in 2013 are expected to be 16.8 million, an increase of 8.5%.
Second, the commercial vehicle market forecast. First, the sales volume of trucks was approximately 3.3 million vehicles, which represented a slight increase of 1%. The passenger car market will grow steadily, and passenger car sales are expected to reach 520,000, with a growth rate of 5%. Based on the forecast of trucks and buses, the commercial vehicle market in 2013 as a whole has grown slightly from the previous year. Sales of commercial vehicles are expected to be 3.85 million, with a growth rate of 1%.
Third, the import and export market forecast. The growth rate of imported vehicle market demand in 2013 will continue to fall. It is estimated that the number of imported cars will be 1.45 million, with a growth rate of 25%. As China's enterprises increase efforts to open up markets, the international trade of China's auto products will become more active. It is estimated that 1.3 million vehicles will be exported in 2013, with a growth rate of 24%.
Therefore, the total demand for the automotive market in China in 2013 was approximately 20.8 million. This is equivalent to 20.65 million total sales of Chinese cars minus 1.3 million exports, plus 1.45 million imports.
Judging from the actual operation of the auto industry in 2011 and 2012 and the above judgment on the auto market in 2013, the Chinese auto market has entered a period of steady growth. Accustomed to the rapid growth of auto companies, how to adjust to adapt to the new situation, how to maintain sustainable development in the new environment has become a new topic in the industry.
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