In 2012, there are not many exciting commercial vehicle news. Affected by the global economic downturn, China's commercial vehicles, especially the truck industry, have been hovering low, and the entire industry is racking their brains to increase sales and turn the tide. Therefore, the concern about the upcoming implementation of China IV is gradually weakening.
Recently, a piece of news about the "National IV will be postponed again" has once again pushed China IV to the center of public opinion. The reporter interviewed a number of industry experts and experts to verify the truth. Everyone said that at present there has not been any official or official statement that the implementation time of State IV will be pushed back again. At the same time, most of the interviewees believe that it is unlikely that the implementation will be postponed again.
Environmental protection has become the focus of the people
With the desolation of the whole society and the desire for a clean environment, people’s voices for environmental protection are increasing. The greatest effect brought by the implementation of State IV is to reduce emissions, which is consistent with people’s needs. Therefore, from the perspective of environmental protection, the National IV is already "in the strings."
"If you postpone it again, it will disappoint the entire industry. At present, the industry is confident that the national IV will be implemented as planned." Li Hao, marketing manager of the China Office of the National Institute of Applied Science in the Netherlands, told reporters: "Always Since then, we have maintained good communication and communication with our peers, and we have recently noticed news that 'China IV may be pushed back again.' But the industry is still generally optimistic and optimistic. At least companies are ready. Major mainstream vehicles and engine plants have National IV products. In addition, energy conservation and emission reduction is a global trend. The pressure on China’s emission reduction is very large, and the government’s driving force in this area is also great. hair'."
An internal combustion engine researcher Mr. Liu (a pseudonym) added: "The process of industrial transformation and upgrading is unavoidable. This is the process that any country's related industries will experience. The United States has always been called the 'country on wheels.' However, their air quality has also been kept very good, and in fact, as early as 1998, when they started to introduce emission standards, they were not very smooth, even serious enough for the industry to falsify.
At that time, if the EPA punished those companies according to standards, many companies would be sent to bankruptcy. However, due to the large number of companies involved, the EPA has finally adopted a 'no solution,' which requires companies to invest a lot of R&D funds for product upgrades. In this process, companies with weaker capabilities are eliminated, which results in the The United States continues to upgrade its emissions standards today. In terms of fuel consumption and power performance of vehicles, it is believed that through market adjustment, companies will make corresponding improvements.
Regarding emission issues, just as people use electricity and water daily, some people think that the role of household savings is small and they don’t pay attention, but the cumulative effect is huge, so mandatory regulations are also needed to make a difference. Perhaps a car's emissions are not much different between the country III or the country IV, but the addition of millions of trucks in China will have a huge impact on the environment. â€
"As far as the current pressures for environmental improvement are concerned, the State IV can no longer be postponed. The later the implementation of the National IV Standard, the more pollutants will be discharged and the worse the air quality. Therefore, no matter from the perspective of social responsibility or environmental protection, National IV standards are imperative,†said an industry source.
Credibility cannot be questioned
Compared with environmental protection, the need for public trust in policies is another important factor for the implementation of the State IV on time. Professor Ge Yunshan from Beijing Institute of Technology believes that “for the time being, we will not mention technology and oil products. It will not be postponed from the point of view of the national government alone. How can an industry regulation be postponed again and again? The experiences of developed countries are still decades of experience in reform and opening up, and it is not uncommon for development to ignore the lessons of environmental protection. It is believed that relevant departments will certainly fully and fully consider when making decisions.â€
"We will surely implement it on time." Mr. Liu told the reporter firmly: "First of all, the National IV emission standard is the beginning of 'GB', which means that it is a mandatory standard, not a recommendation, and it was also released by the Ministry of Environmental Protection at the end of last year. The related 'red-head file' was issued. If it is postponed again, then what is the seriousness of the industry regulations? Secondly, as early as around 2005, no matter whether it was a major domestic scientific research institute or a mainstream company, it started to research and develop national IV products. Today, the technical level can fully meet the requirements. Finally, the implementation of the country IV is not only an industrial-level issue, but also a matter of environmental protection and sustainable development."
Objective reasons should not be an excuse
According to industry analysts, the overall economic climate is sluggish, and the deserted freight market has led to no improvement in the production and sales of trucks for the whole year. At this time, China is again forced to implement State IV. As a result, the cost increases, companies are hard to pay and will eventually be passed on to users. How can a user who has no money earned himself buy a car with a price increase? In response, many interviewees believe that most manufacturers can meet standards. Therefore, strict standards are actually a good thing for them and can eliminate small vendors or low-end products. In addition, if it is implemented in the second half of 2013, there may be a situation of concentrated consumption in the first half of the year, which will drive the growth of sales.
Mr. Liu holds this view: “Different models have different cost tolerance capabilities. The price of a light vehicle is less than RMB 100,000. In order to meet State IV, increase the cost of post-processing systems, etc., it must be at least RMB 10,000. This is true. It is difficult for many users to accept, but if the entire industry strictly complies with the requirements of the standards and there is no swindling, the user will gradually accept the price at a level, and it must be clear that the market shrinks and the sales volume decline is objective. The development of any industry has peaks and troughs, and we cannot delay the environmental protection in the future by temporarily saving the city."
Technology is not a problem. It is understood that the current domestic mainstream commercial vehicle companies already have the technical reserves of the State IV, the National IV vehicle model announcements are also increasing. Wei Libao, the chief engineer of the technical department of FAW Jiefang Automobile Co., Ltd. once said: There should be no delay, and the possibility of delay is not great.
"Information that has not yet been postponed shall be implemented on schedule." According to relevant personnel of Navistar, "Mainstream companies including Navistar, JAC and the like have matured China IV products, regardless of whether they are implemented as scheduled or not. All we need to do is to continuously improve our products and give our customers the most reliable and durable engines.Our country has a vast territory and the development of each region is unbalanced, while commercial vehicles are pulling goods all over the country, and it is inevitable that there will be 'drinking' to China's IV oil. At this time, we must test the engine's tolerance."
As for the old-fashioned oil products issue, an oil industry source who asked not to be named told reporters: “In fact, upgrading of oil products is a problem of investment and returns. From a technical perspective, there is no problem in meeting oil standards. Upgrading is the result of a multi-party game."
The biggest problem is actually the implementation of the policy. It can be said that this is the key to the problem. According to people in the industry, “Starting from the consideration of the overall situation, we should not postpone the implementation time further. If only employment is concerned, we should separate the light truck and the medium- and heavy-duty truck. Although the discussion of the real country III has been going on for a long time, However, there are still a certain number of light trucks sold on the market at present, which has seriously affected the upgrading of light truck products.These enterprises that use non-electric control systems and naturally inhale their engines will face great difficulties, but if they do Therefore, the phenomenon of decking will certainly be even more rampant. For medium and heavy truck manufacturers, the products are basically ready to be put in place, but due to the different practices of each company in the early stage of the market introduction process, it will bring product sales. The difference.†The staff analyst said.
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The National IV emission standard was originally scheduled to be implemented on January 1, 2011. On December 21, 2010, the Ministry of Environmental Protection said that the implementation of the IV standard for diesel vehicles over 3.5 tons was postponed for one year, that is, it was formally implemented on January 1, 2012. Subsequently, at the beginning of 2012, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued a document saying that starting from July 1, 2013, all production, import, sales, and registration of vehicle compression ignition engines (mainly diesel engines) and automobiles must be completed. In line with national IV standards. This means that the date for raising the environmental standards of diesel engine vehicles to the National IV standard will be postponed again.
For the reasons for the delay, the Ministry of Environmental Protection said: “In view of the current supply of automotive diesel that satisfies the requirements of the National IV standard, it is still not in place and severely constrains the implementation progress of the National IV standard. In order to ensure the implementation of the standard, it is determined according to the actual fuel supply of the vehicle. Model and sub-regional implementation country IV standards."
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