How much impact does rapeseed production reduce on the supply of oil crops?

Let us first analyze the forecasting table of planting area/yield decline in the main rapeseed areas of China. The main reasons for the reduction are: 1 to change the market-based acquisition and subsidies, and to seriously damage the farmers' planting enthusiasm; Low; 3 increase in abandonment or switch to economic crops such as wheat; 4 soybean imports increase year by year, squeeze the living space of Chinese oil crops and so on.

Figure 1: Estimated planting area/production decline in the main producing areas of China's rapeseed in 2015/16

Remarks: Data from China Feed Industry Information Network & Huitong Data Research Department

Since Huitong Data began to pay close attention to the rapeseed market and has relevant system statistics, we have found that China's rapeseed production is declining year by year. Even after 2005, the annual production of Chinese rapeseed has been less than 10 million tons. Do not believe? Then, from the annual consumption of the vegetable dumplings, the same can be a face of the evidence. As early as 2006, we have already issued a notice of critical illness to China's rapeseed industry! It is full of enthusiasm to speak with data, a word "cool". The Huitong data beat the face of the Bureau of Statistics, and the daring was also big. The Sichuan sister had to pray for 1 minute...

Chart 2: 2005-2016 China rapeseed annual production statistics comparison table (10,000 tons)

Remarks: 1, 2005-2014 production from the National Bureau of Statistics of China

2, 2015, 2016 Statistics Bureau production data is an estimate

3, 2016 Huitong production data of 5.22 million tons is estimated

In 2015, the area of ​​winter rapeseed planting decreased significantly. The fact that China's rapeseed production was reduced in 2016 seems to accelerate the pace of death of China's rapeseed industry. Don’t see the word death, it’s serious. Although it’s actually a very serious problem, but the Chinese love it, but there are so many small workshops that have to squeeze oil. Not to mention that soybeans and soybean oil are not good. Guarantee, no matter how bad it is, there is imported rapeseed!

This is already the case in China. Where can foreign countries go?

(The front is high energy, a large wave of predicted data information strikes, if you feel uncomfortable, you can directly decline to enjoy the beautiful map, no thanks, Chuanmeizi commissioned praise!)

Follow, don't fall behind! Now lead everyone to see what the situation in the international market is. Xiaobian compiled the US Department of Agriculture's new forecast data on rapeseed production. However, given the decline in rapeseed plantings in Canada, Ukraine, the European Union and China, which is greater than the increase in Australia and India, there is no relevant forecast for Australian and Indian rapeseed production.

1. Global rapeseed production is expected to decrease by 3% in 2016/17 to 66.1 million tons.

2. Canada's canola production in 2016/17 is likely to decrease by 10% to 15.5 million tons.

3. China's rapeseed production may decrease by 10% in 2016/17, which is expected to be 13.3 million tons.

4. Ukrainian rapeseed production in 2016/17 may be reduced to 1.3 million tons, which will be the low level since 2012/13.

Figure 3: Estimated rapeseed production in 2016/17 and estimated year-on-year decline (10,000 tons)

Remarks: Data from the US Department of Agriculture, China Feed Industry Information Network & Huitong Data Research Department

In addition, a new report from the French analysis agency Strategic Grains shows that the 28-year rapeseed production in the EU 28 countries is expected to be 21.56 million tons, higher than the earlier forecast of 21.43 million tons. The new production forecast data is 1.7% lower than the 21.93 million tons in 2015/16. The rapeseed production in 2014/15 was 24.26 million tons. The 2016/17 EU 28 rapeseed yield is expected to be 3.4 tons/ha, up from 3.38 tons predicted last month, unchanged from the previous year and 3.61 tons in 2014/15.

Figure 4: Statistics on EU rapeseed production and yield data in 2014-16 (10,000 tons, tons/ha)

Remarks: The data comes from the strategic grain company through China Feed Industry Information Network & Huitong Data Research Department

After the drug primer is finished, I will talk about the impact of rapeseed production on China's oil crops and by-product market!

This year's new development of domestic rapeseed is presented to everyone: the rapeseed harvest in Hubei is completed, the purchase price of the trader is 1.85-1.95 yuan / kg, the purchase price of the manufacturer is 1.92-2.00 yuan / kg; the rapeseed in Anhui is accelerated. At present, the listed purchase price is 1.80-2.00 yuan / kg; the new rapeseed in Yunguichuan area is listed one after another, the purchase price of Yungui is 2.20-2.30 yuan / kg, and the purchase price of Sichuan is 2.25-2.35 yuan / kg.

As far as the current purchase price of rapeseed in the new season is concerned, it has been lowered more or less than the previous year, but overall it is significantly higher than the purchase price of the rapeseed concentrated listing stage last year. Considering the decline in supply caused by production cuts, it is theoretically able to support the increase in rapeseed prices, which leads to an increase in the production cost of rapeseed meal, the increase in the price of rapeseed meal, and a further reduction in the price/performance ratio compared with soybean meal, thereby stimulating the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal. Gradually play it.

Xiaobian worked overtime to calculate the annual average price of China's soybean meal and rapeseed main production areas from 2006 to 2015, and compiled a clear-cut chart for your reference.

Figure 5: Annual average price chart of soybean meal/vegetables in China's main producing areas from 2006 to 2015 (yuan/ton)

Remarks: Data from China Feed Industry Information Network & Huitong Data Research Department

Figure 6: Annual average price chart of soybean meal/vegetables in China's main producing areas from 2006 to 2015 (yuan/ton)

Remarks: Data from China Feed Industry Information Network & Huitong Data Research Department

As we all know, the market conditions of soybean meal almost dominate the direction of the whole market of Chinese plant protein materials. It is roughly estimated that the annual consumption of Chinese soybean meal in recent years is about eight times that of the vegetable meal. That is to say, the market trend of the vegetable market is basically followed by the bean meal. At the same time, from the annual average price of rapeseed meal and soybean meal, the price difference between rapeseed meal and soybean meal is generally decreasing year by year, the price-performance ratio of vegetable meal is decreasing year by year, and the replacement trend of soybean meal is increasing year by year.

What will happen to the vegetable market in 2016? The consequences of continuous rapeseed production are very serious!

咱 First give a consequence: reduced production leads to a rise in the theoretical price of rapeseed → increased cost of rapeseed → increase in sales price → further decline in cost performance → further diversion of leeks → further increase in soybean meal replacement → further increase in soybean imports → future rapeseed planting in China The industry space was further compressed → the external dependence of China's oil crops was further improved.

After reading so many text analysis and graphic displays, I was really shocked by the cold sweat. Under the high pressure of internal and external troubles, how long does the rapeseed meal still last? It seems that I have to give some dry goods to be relieved. The teacher said that the analysis without data is a rogue, so the small editors will take the historical accumulated data out and suppress it. Of course, as early as the end of March, we repeatedly reminded many customers of Huitong Data that the later dishes will experience an increase. Please encourage the God to expand the inventory according to the demand to avoid risks. I don't know if I have entered the eyes of everyone?

Figure 7: Statistics on Chinese rapeseed and rapeseed meal in 2011-15 (10,000 tons)

Remarks: Data from China Feed Industry Information Network & Huitong Data Research Department

Through such analysis, the impact of rapeseed production reduction on the Chinese cabbage market in 2016, according to the system data of Huitong Data Research Department, the total annual consumption of Chinese food and vegetables in 2015 was 6,154,200 tons. In 2016, the total consumption of Chinese foodstuffs was about 6 million tons, down by about 500,000 tons. The substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal will further increase. The reduction of rapeseed production has led to an increase in the cost of domestic rapeseed, which has led to a further decline in the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal and soybean meal. The consumption of rapeseed meal has been further restricted, which is the main influencing factor of the year-on-year decline in the consumption of vegetable meal.

It’s too embarrassing to think about the situation of the dish, and it’s obviously in short supply. It should have become a hot commodity, but because the price/performance ratio is so low compared with soybean meal, as early as 2015, domestic feed manufacturers generally put the formula. The amount of food in the dish is compressed to a low level, or even abandoned. So I fell in love with the dish, the "supply woman" who is not enough but has excess supply. Are you afraid?

In the middle and late April, Huitong data analysts have proposed that there is a strong process for the price of rapeseed in May-July. At present, the spot market of the vegetable market is in the upward shift; during the period from August to October, we predict the soybean meal. Because of the high probability of a sharp rise in the hype of La Niña, the possibility of a rise in the number of dishes during the August-October period is greater. The key points to be concerned about the formation time of La Nina and the impact on the soybean plantation market in North America and South America, as well as the speculation of speculative funds. So far, we prefer that during the August-October period, the market will be affected by soybean meal, or there will be a process of sharp rise.

(Original title: How big is the impact of rapeseed production on China's oil crops and by-products market?)