China's Manufacturing Industry: Continuing Pressure

China's manufacturing industry, which is the highlight of industrial upgrading, once again ushered in a favorable policy. On April 6, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council and decided to implement the "Standardization and Quality Improvement Plan for Equipment Manufacturing Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") to lead the upgrade of manufacturing in China.

The meeting believed that adhering to standards and leading the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse is an important part of structural reforms, especially structural reforms on the supply side, which will help improve supply and expand demand, and promote the product industry to move toward the mid-to-high end. While the goal of “building a strong manufacturing nation” was once again emphasized, the recent performance of China’s manufacturing industry also revealed a hint of spring.

On April 1, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in March 2016, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was higher than the previous value of 49.0, which was higher than the expected value of 49.4, which was 50.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. Regaining the expansion zone, this is also the first time that the manufacturing PMI has returned to the line of honor and death since August last year.

After the Spring Festival, enterprises started to concentrate and the supply-side structural reforms accelerated. As a result, manufacturing production and markets have picked up. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center, gave the reasons.

Liu Xuezhi, a senior analyst at the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications (5.520, -0.01, -0.18%), analyzed with the reporter of the "China Sankei Shimbun" that in the past two months, a lot of macro data has picked up. Manufacturing PMI is one of them. Now, the entire manufacturing PMI has returned more than 50%, and the rate of increase has been relatively large, which is related to the improvement of the entire economy since January. Secondly, the increase in demand is also a major contributing factor. On the one hand, investment growth has picked up compared to last year. On the other hand, the growth rate of new construction projects has been faster, and some building materials related to manufacturing and production are on the rise. This reflects the fact that Demand is rising, which in turn drives manufacturing production, which in turn boosts manufacturing PMI recovery.

Under the influence of many favorable factors, the follow-up performance of manufacturing PMI also caused concern. Liu Xuezhi believes that there are many positive factors in the first half of this year. For example, there are new increases in projects that are planned to start, and if steady growth is increasing, including fiscal policies and deficits this year, all of which will help production to pick up. Next, the manufacturing PMI should be able to remain slightly above the 50% level.

However, Liu Xuezhi reminded us that it is necessary to note that there is still a certain pressure on the entire manufacturing industry and the entire economy. In particular, with the advancement of capacity reduction, the manufacturing industry may face greater pressure. Therefore, the entire manufacturing PMI The likelihood of a rebound to a higher level will not be great.

Then, what kind of role can this "planning" play?

The executive meeting of the State Council requires the “Planning” to link with “Made in China 2025”, aiming at international advanced level, accelerating the development of key technical standards, and promoting new breakthroughs in the standardization of key areas such as robots, advanced rail transit equipment, agricultural machinery, and high-performance medical equipment. Adapt to the progress of innovation and market demand to update standards in a timely manner, and strive to increase the conversion rate of international standards in key areas from the current 70% to more than 90% by 2020.

Enhancing the status of China's manufacturing industry in the international market through industry-standard competition is crucial to the further improvement of the level of manufacturing industry. At the same time, "Made in China 2025" is the action plan for the first decade of China's advanced manufacturing powerhouse, drawing a blueprint for the development of the manufacturing industry.

However, although "Made in China 2025" and "Planning" are major policy positives, they have a more pronounced impact on the manufacturing industry in the medium to long term, especially in the transformation and upgrading of the entire manufacturing industry in the future, especially in emerging industries and high-tech industries. It has played a major role in leading, and in the short term, these policy plans have a relatively limited role in promoting the manufacturing industry, especially the traditional manufacturing industry, Liu Xuezhi thinks.

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