After the automotive industry passed its profitability in 2005, it finally ushered in the dawn of profits in the first half of this year. Recently, many listed companies such as G-Shangqi, G Jinlong, G Sedan, G Chang'an, and G Jiangling announced their first-half results or pre-addition announcements. First-half net profit of automotive listed companies increased significantly year-on-year. The industry believes that the auto industry is expected to usher in a new peak with the simultaneous growth of domestic auto industry's recurring sales and profits.
status quo:
Performance increased significantly year-on-year
The year-on-year performance of automotive listed companies this year has grown significantly. According to the data released in the previous quarter, the income of listed companies in the automotive industry increased by 25% year-on-year in the first quarter, and net profit increased by 9.67% year-on-year. In the semi-annual announcements of some listed companies, it can be seen that the performance of listed companies in the auto industry is still rising significantly. According to the semi-annual report of SAIC Motors, the major economic indicators in the first half of the year showed a momentum of growth, and net profit increased by 14.01% year-on-year.
As a result of the recovery of the auto industry, the performance of listed companies that mainly deal with auto parts has also improved. In addition, although some listed automobile companies have not yet announced their performance, their performance will also increase significantly in the first half of the year.
analysis:
Strong demand for production and sales
The growth of the performance of listed companies reflects the full recovery of the automotive industry. According to statistics released by the National Development and Reform Commission last week, during the first half of this year, the growth rate of automobile production and sales has been markedly accelerated. In the first half of the year, output increased by 27.8% year-on-year, and vehicle sales increased by 26.7%. In the first half of the year, the profits of the national automotive industry surged 58.5% to 35.8 billion yuan.
As for the reasons for the profit growth of auto companies in the first half of this year, the auto companies that announced the announcement were driven by the substantial growth in production and sales under strong demand. G SAIC said, "The most fundamental reason for growth in performance is also the improvement of the market environment."
Dongfeng Nissan’s sales department said that the overall situation in the automotive market in the first half of the year was relatively satisfactory due to the relatively strong market demand. On the one hand, the reduction of tariffs and the implementation of the new automobile consumption tax have led to a steady decline in the prices of domestic cars and the release of consumers’ money for purchase. In the first half of the year, many companies adjusted their product mix and continuously introduced new products, which helped the company's profitability. On the other hand, the price of steel has gradually declined since October of last year, which has partially eased the cost pressures of companies.
prediction:
Car prices continue to decline and sales steadily rise
Can the growth momentum in the first half of the year continue in the second half? At present, most research institutions and industry insiders are optimistic about this. According to the current situation, the sales situation in the auto market will continue to be good.
Industry insiders predict that car prices are expected to decline further in the second half of the year and total sales will remain stable. According to the "China Automotive Industry Quarterly" released in the first quarter of this year by the Development Research Center of the State Council, the current growth of the passenger vehicle market is obvious, and the price of automobiles has continued to decline slightly since last year. It is expected that sales of passenger vehicles will continue to grow at a rapid rate in the second half of the year, but the growth rate will fall to within 25% to 30%.
The Haitong Securities Research Institute stated in the latest industry report that the car is still in its growth period and its earnings have been growing steadily. Due to the long-term growth of domestic consumer demand for cars, it is expected to maintain an average annual growth of 20% before 2011. Considering factors such as the decrease in profit margins and product selling prices, as well as sales growth, the average growth rate of sedan profit in the next six years is 3.18% to 10.07%.
Some auto listed companies' interim results
Listed company's main business income year-on-year growth, net profit year-on-year increase
G Jinlong 412 million yuan 77.90% 6183.27 million 30.15%
G SAIC 446.590 million yuan 54.42% 54.48 million yuan 14.01
% Ningbo Huaxiang 58,231.28 million 212.17% 4104.22 million 332.73
% AVIC Precision Machinery 108.242 million yuan 103.54% 841.5 million yuan 133.6
%G car net profit increase by 50% ~ 100
%G Changan Net profit increase by 45
%G Jiangling Net profit increase by 60
% FAW Xiali Net profit increase by 200
% Industry Views:
CITIC Securities analyst Li Chunbo: The growth rate in the second half of the year will certainly be lower than the first half. It is inevitable that the expansion of automobile production capacity is too fast and the competition is swift, which will inevitably lead to a downward trend in gross profit margin. At present, the gross margin of the domestic auto industry is obviously still too high. The reasonable profit margin in the future should be reduced to slightly higher than that of the developed countries.
Jia Xinguang, chief analyst of China Automotive Industry Consulting and Development Co., Ltd.: China is the world's largest automotive consumer market. Despite the sales decline in May and June this year, the current auto market is relatively serious, but the warm trend will not change. As new vehicle production capacity can be further improved in the second half of the year, it is confident in the market performance in the second half of the year.
July total sales
280,000 cars
The reporter learned from the National Passenger Vehicles Association yesterday that a total of 280,000 cars were sold in China last month, and continued to decline by 12.3% on the basis of sales of 319,000 vehicles in June. However, compared with the same period of last year, the growth rate of the domestic auto market is still around 20%, and the overall auto market is still moving towards a good trend.
According to the latest statistics, in the sales volume of cars sold in July, FAW-Volkswagen ranked first on the monthly sales of 29,501 vehicles this year, while Shanghai General Motors followed the number of 24,445. Secondly, Shanghai Shanghai Motors sold 26,088 units per month, ranking third; Beijing Hyundai Motor sold 24,160 units, ranking fourth; FAW Toyota sold 19,262 units, ranking fifth.
July sales decreased by 12.3% from June. The industry believes that July is generally the lowest point of sales of passenger cars throughout the year, so it is normal for major manufacturers to have sales decline at the same time. From August onwards, with the end of the off-season, this situation will gradually change.