What are the reasons for this upswing? After mid-2007, can the diammonium phosphate market continue to advance rapidly?
Bio-energy boom lifts international prices
Since the beginning of 2006, FOB US Gulf FOB prices have risen from the beginning of January $255 (tonne price, the same below) all the way to the current peak of 440 US dollars, an increase of more than 70%. Driven by the price of diammonium phosphate in the United States, the market price of international phosphate fertilizer increased rapidly.
The increase in the price of international fertiliser market is related to the increase in raw material costs, but the decisive factor is the upsurge of bioenergy represented by the United States. The analysis found that the price change of main raw materials of diammonium phosphate in January-June was much lower than that of finished diammonium.
According to analysis, the bio-energy boom represented by the United States has rapidly boosted the demand for corn and other crops, and has boosted the rapid increase in fertilizer demand, which has become a decisive factor in this round of fertilizer prices soaring.
In addition, due to the increase in international trade volume of bulk cargoes and the limited capacity, international shipping prices have also been rising all the way, leading to higher import costs. Taking the Gulf of America to China port as an example, the sea freight has increased from about 48 dollars at the beginning of the year to about 70 dollars at present.
International prices are still high in summer and autumn
The trend of the market of diammonium phosphate in the later period will continue to be affected by the cost of raw materials and the relationship between supply and demand.
Among its main raw materials, ammonia production is stable and its price is relatively stable. Since entering the summer, the price of synthetic ammonia has dropped steadily and is expected to continue to operate at the price of 300-310 USD in the short term. After the signing of the Indian phosphoric acid purchase contract, the price of phosphoric acid was relatively stable. The price of sulphur was relatively large. One of its main suppliers, Canada, was affected by the strike. Supply and transportation were tight. The price rose sharply. The price of the original contract rose from US$45 to the high-end price of US$100. There was no significant increase in the recent period. Callback demand. According to the analysis of comprehensive cost factors, the price of diammonium phosphate in the international market in the short term will not be substantially lowered due to cost reasons.
In terms of demand, global demand for fertilizers will continue to increase, driven by the heat of bioenergy. The domestic bioenergy boom in the United States is still rising, and the sown area of ​​corn is still increasing. At present, the corn planting area for the production of biofuels has accounted for 20% of the total corn planting area. It is estimated that in another 3-4 years, this proportion will increase to 35%. In other regions such as South America, Asia, and Europe, the biofuel industry is also strong. Driven by this, the global agricultural production situation will continue to be on the rise, and the demand for global fertilizers will continue to increase.
In April of this year, the lack of large orders had caused the late price trend of diammonium to lose its support and the international phosphate fertilizer market was in a stalemate. However, at the IFA's annual meeting in Turkey in May, India signed a 1.1 million-ton import contract with the American Phosphate Fertilizer Export Association, with a ton price of around US$420. The signing of the contract set a benchmark for diammonium prices in summer and autumn, and strongly supported the trend that international diammonium prices will still operate at high prices.
Based on the above analysis, the international market price of diammonium phosphate will continue to operate at high prices in summer and autumn. So whether the market will have an inflection point and when there will be a turning point, to answer this question will take until the end of September. By then, the demand for DAP in the United States will enter the off-season from peak season, and India's large contract has also been completed.
In addition, due to the impact of China's exports, some traditional customers in the United States and North Africa have already purchased diammonium phosphate from China for cost reasons. If the lack of strong demand and the support of large orders, combined with a comprehensive analysis of the cost and supply situation, the international market of diammonium phosphate will appear after the turning point in September, prices will also callback.
Export expansion boosts domestic prices
Driven by the rapid increase in prices of the international fertilizer market, the export of domestic DAP was strong and the price rose rapidly. It has risen from about 290 U.S. dollars at the beginning of the year to about 430-450 U.S. dollars.
Although the government issued a document that imposes a tariff of 10%-20% on the export of diammonium phosphate from June 1, many companies have completed customs procedures before the documents are issued. Although the goods are still pending shipment at the port, they can also Tax free export. According to the export price of 450 US dollars, even if the value-added tax is 20%, the price of the reversed pushback is still as high as 2,750 yuan, which is much higher than the domestic agricultural market price.
Therefore, despite the fact that export tariffs have already been imposed, the export enthusiasm of the factories remains unabated. According to customs statistics, the export volume of diammonium phosphate in the first five months was 551,440,000 tons, an increase of more than 50% over the same period of last year. It is reported that at present, the number of diammonium that has been declared for shipment at ports has been around 300,000 tons.
In addition, since the export taxation does not involve monoammonium phosphate, some manufacturers have already converted some of the diammonium plants into an ammonium major export market for greater profits. The monoammonium phosphate export grew rapidly, and the export volume of monoammonium phosphate from January to May was 346,300 tons, an increase of more than 50% over the same period of last year. It is expected that by the end of July, the quantity of monoammonium phosphate exports will still increase substantially.
Comparing with the rising trend of global market prices of diammonium phosphate, domestic fertilizer market prices have been relatively stable. The mainstream factory price in Yunnan-Guizhou region rose from the current 2300-2350 yuan at the beginning of this year to the current 2500-2550 yuan, an increase of about 10%. Now it has gradually entered the period of preparing fertilizer in the autumn. As the enterprises are still renewing the export orders for the previous period, the market supply is tight, and the mainstream ex-factory price has recently adjusted upwards by 20-30 yuan.
Fall domestic market prices have steadily increased
Affected by rising costs, rising export prices and tight supply, the market price of diammonium phosphate in the domestic market has steadily increased in the fall.
The price of raw materials represented by sulphur rises, which accounts for a large proportion of the increase in production costs of phosphate fertilizers. The sulphur export prices in Vancouver have been soaring. The Chinese port CIF price has increased from about US$90 last year to 160-170 US dollars or even higher. The transaction price of the port also increased from 900 yuan to 1200, 1600, and 1700 yuan, and even had a high transaction price of 2,000 yuan. The price of sulphuric acid rose more than that at the end of last year, while the price of phosphate ore was relatively stable, but the price also rose. If the price of sulfur in the later period can gradually return, it will become the main way to reduce the production cost of diammonium and monoammonium.
After the end of spring sales in previous years, distributors and manufacturers at all levels will have a certain amount of inventory, and the average social inventory will be around 20-50 million tons. Inventories driven by exports this year, the production companies have a clear or very few export channels, and most of the inventory at distribution outlets is also digested through the port of transit.
For example, if the price of diammonium phosphate in the international market remains stable, the export situation of domestic production enterprises will continue to improve. By October, the export tax rate will be reduced to 10%, and companies can choose to convert the original winter storage diammonium to exports for greater profits. According to this situation, it is assumed that the total output of diammonium this year will exceed 1.2 million tons, and will be more than 500,000 tons more than in 2006. In addition, since the export of monoammonium phosphate still enjoys a tax exemption policy, many enterprises have already converted some of the diammonium phosphate plant to monoammonium phosphate for greater benefit. Currently, the output of this part of the diammonium conversion is around 300,000 to 400,000 tons. The increase in exports will inevitably lead to tight domestic supply of goods.
The annual demand for DAP in China is about 6 million tons. In 2007, production of DAP was estimated to be about 6.8 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons compared with last year. In addition to the estimated export volume and the total output of mono-ammonium conversion to 1.6 million tons, the supply of diammonium to the domestic fertilizer market is about 5.2 million tons. At the same time, the import of DAP will be greatly reduced this year due to the impact of the international market, and the total reduction should be above 500,000 tons.
When the price of diammonium phosphate is relatively high or grassroots distributors are not profitable, the sales of compound fertilizers will be increased. Some farmers will also switch to compound fertilizer instead of diammonium phosphate. This year due to the continuous increase in price of monoammonium and potassium fertilizers as the main raw materials for the production of compound fertilizers, many small and medium-sized compound fertilizer plants have restricted production or partially suspended production due to low profit or no interest. As a result, the quantity of compound fertilizers on the market has also been reduced to some extent. The replacement effect of fertilizer on diammonium phosphate will weaken.
Based on the above analysis, the domestic market for diammonium phosphate in the fall this year should show that the total supply is tight and the price is steadily increasing. Possible variables will come from the decline in prices of raw materials such as sulphur and the government's introduction of relevant policies to further increase its efforts to limit exports.
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