In June, affected by the increase in the price of oil in the international market, the prices of major domestic petrochemical products rose significantly, and the price of some products reached the highest level this year. It is expected that prices of some petrochemical products will still rise under the support of high oil prices in the later period. However, due to the substantial downward adjustment in the export tax rebate rate, the increase will not be too great, and prices of individual products may fall.
In June, due to the arrival of summer peak demand and the continuous decline in the US refinery operating rate to the lowest point in the same period in history, coupled with the Nigerian oil trade unions’ dissatisfaction with the government’s increase in oil prices and the transfer of state-owned refineries, the oil price in the international market was running high and rising slightly. WTI crude oil prices exceeded US$70 per barrel at the end of the month, the highest level since last September. With the promotion of high oil prices, domestic petrochemical enterprises have raised the ex-factory prices of products, and the transaction prices of major petrochemical products have increased significantly. Among them, polyethylene prices in late June reached 13,313 yuan (t price, the same below), for the highest price since mid-September last year; polypropylene prices reached 12317 yuan in late June, also restored to the level of February this year; polychlorinated Ethylene prices have reached the highest price in the past two years.
Taking into account the changes in prices of major petrochemical products in June, the average prices of polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC, and polyester chips in 36 large and medium-sized cities were 13,235 yuan, 12,253 yuan, 7614 yuan, and 11,691 yuan, respectively, a 1.98% increase over the previous month. 3.04%, 4.20%, and 3.01%, up 4.86%, 2.38%, 7.21%, and 8.34% respectively over the same period last year.
Unlike resinous petrochemicals, domestic rubber prices continued to fall slightly in June. The main reason is that due to the continuous rise in the price of rubber in recent years, it has greatly stimulated the production enthusiasm of natural rubber farmers and synthetic rubber companies, resulting in a substantial increase in both natural rubber and synthetic rubber production this year.
In the coming period, supported by high oil prices in the international market, prices of major petrochemical products will remain high, and prices of some products will continue to rise slightly. However, due to the export tax rebate policy, prices of major petrochemical products may not increase substantially. There may be a slight drop.
First, in July, global oil demand will reach its highest peak in a year, and disastrous weather that will affect oil production and transportation will gradually increase. At the same time, the production capacity of global refinery equipment, especially clean gasoline, has been growing relatively slowly in recent years. In particular, frequent accidents occur in US refineries and the operating rate is relatively low, making the supply of gasoline demand relatively tight during the peak period. Therefore, the international market oil prices will continue to maintain a high level, thus supporting the high price of petrochemical products.
Secondly, from the perspective of the demand for petrochemical products, due to the current and future period, the international and domestic economic situation is still generally good, and the downstream enterprises’ investment and production growth will be faster, which will also support the continued high price of petrochemical products. According to statistics, from January to May of this year, China's investment in fixed assets in the plastics industry increased by 54.8%; fixed-asset investment in the chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 36.6%; fixed-asset investment in the rubber products industry increased by 32.6%, which was higher than the national investment in fixed assets. The increase was 28.9, 10.7 and 6.7 percentage points higher. In the short term, the momentum of rapid production growth of downstream enterprises will continue to maintain, which will drive the sustained and rapid growth of demand for petrochemical products.
In addition, the gradual effect of export tax rebate policy may exert downward pressure on the prices of some petrochemical products. On June 18 of this year, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the “Notice on Decreasing the Tax Rebate Rates for Certain Productsâ€, which stipulates that since July 1, 2007, the export tax rebate policy for some commodities will be adjusted. After the export tax rebate rate for plastics and their products fell from 13% to 11% on September 15, 2006, this tax rate adjustment further lowered the export tax rebate rate for plastics, rubber, and their products to 5%. After the export tax rebate rate is lowered, the cost of downstream enterprises will increase and profits will decline, which will have a big impact on the demand for petrochemical products. In particular, petrochemical products such as PVC, which have excess capacity in individual countries, will have a greater impact, and their prices may slow down in the second half of the year. Fall back.
In June, due to the arrival of summer peak demand and the continuous decline in the US refinery operating rate to the lowest point in the same period in history, coupled with the Nigerian oil trade unions’ dissatisfaction with the government’s increase in oil prices and the transfer of state-owned refineries, the oil price in the international market was running high and rising slightly. WTI crude oil prices exceeded US$70 per barrel at the end of the month, the highest level since last September. With the promotion of high oil prices, domestic petrochemical enterprises have raised the ex-factory prices of products, and the transaction prices of major petrochemical products have increased significantly. Among them, polyethylene prices in late June reached 13,313 yuan (t price, the same below), for the highest price since mid-September last year; polypropylene prices reached 12317 yuan in late June, also restored to the level of February this year; polychlorinated Ethylene prices have reached the highest price in the past two years.
Taking into account the changes in prices of major petrochemical products in June, the average prices of polyethylene, polypropylene, PVC, and polyester chips in 36 large and medium-sized cities were 13,235 yuan, 12,253 yuan, 7614 yuan, and 11,691 yuan, respectively, a 1.98% increase over the previous month. 3.04%, 4.20%, and 3.01%, up 4.86%, 2.38%, 7.21%, and 8.34% respectively over the same period last year.
Unlike resinous petrochemicals, domestic rubber prices continued to fall slightly in June. The main reason is that due to the continuous rise in the price of rubber in recent years, it has greatly stimulated the production enthusiasm of natural rubber farmers and synthetic rubber companies, resulting in a substantial increase in both natural rubber and synthetic rubber production this year.
In the coming period, supported by high oil prices in the international market, prices of major petrochemical products will remain high, and prices of some products will continue to rise slightly. However, due to the export tax rebate policy, prices of major petrochemical products may not increase substantially. There may be a slight drop.
First, in July, global oil demand will reach its highest peak in a year, and disastrous weather that will affect oil production and transportation will gradually increase. At the same time, the production capacity of global refinery equipment, especially clean gasoline, has been growing relatively slowly in recent years. In particular, frequent accidents occur in US refineries and the operating rate is relatively low, making the supply of gasoline demand relatively tight during the peak period. Therefore, the international market oil prices will continue to maintain a high level, thus supporting the high price of petrochemical products.
Secondly, from the perspective of the demand for petrochemical products, due to the current and future period, the international and domestic economic situation is still generally good, and the downstream enterprises’ investment and production growth will be faster, which will also support the continued high price of petrochemical products. According to statistics, from January to May of this year, China's investment in fixed assets in the plastics industry increased by 54.8%; fixed-asset investment in the chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 36.6%; fixed-asset investment in the rubber products industry increased by 32.6%, which was higher than the national investment in fixed assets. The increase was 28.9, 10.7 and 6.7 percentage points higher. In the short term, the momentum of rapid production growth of downstream enterprises will continue to maintain, which will drive the sustained and rapid growth of demand for petrochemical products.
In addition, the gradual effect of export tax rebate policy may exert downward pressure on the prices of some petrochemical products. On June 18 of this year, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the “Notice on Decreasing the Tax Rebate Rates for Certain Productsâ€, which stipulates that since July 1, 2007, the export tax rebate policy for some commodities will be adjusted. After the export tax rebate rate for plastics and their products fell from 13% to 11% on September 15, 2006, this tax rate adjustment further lowered the export tax rebate rate for plastics, rubber, and their products to 5%. After the export tax rebate rate is lowered, the cost of downstream enterprises will increase and profits will decline, which will have a big impact on the demand for petrochemical products. In particular, petrochemical products such as PVC, which have excess capacity in individual countries, will have a greater impact, and their prices may slow down in the second half of the year. Fall back.
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