Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Ouyang Minggao
First, how to treat hydrogen fuel cells
On the one hand, our hydrogen fuel cells have now entered industrialization. Fuel cells are 10 years behind the development of pure electric lithium batteries. Lithium batteries have just started 10 years ago, but after 10 years of development, pure electric vehicles have developed very rapidly. It is estimated that in the next three or five years, the problem of the pure electric vehicle battery that is now plaguing us can be solved, and it is necessary to look at this matter with a developmental perspective.
On the other hand, there are development differences between electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The two technologies of lithium battery and fuel cell are not contradictory and are not a substitute. According to the plan, lithium batteries will develop very well. By 2030, there will be 80 million pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles with lithium-ion batteries, and our planned fuel cell vehicles will be only about 1 million by 2030. It is because the hydrogen fuel cell development was caused by 10 years later.
Therefore, an important direction in the future is to vigorously develop fuel cells, but this is not only the development of fuel cell vehicles. The development of hydrogen fuel cells and the development of hydrogen fuel vehicles can not be equated, hydrogen fuel cells involve a wide range. In the automotive industry, the focus is on commercial vehicles, but there are many uses, such as airplanes, trains, ships, power generation, energy storage, etc. We should look at this issue from an energy perspective, rather than simply from the car. point of view.
Second, the advantages and disadvantages of developing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China
First, the advantage is that our electric vehicles are developing very well and can provide a lot of experience for fuel cell vehicles. Fuel cell vehicles are also electric vehicles. Motors, batteries, and electronic controls are the same. They are just a generator built on pure electric power. The difference is not big. The biggest difficulty now is that the cost and technology of on-board hydrogen storage have not reached an ideal state, and the cost is high. To solve this problem, we must rely on technological innovation - to develop a new generation of technology. After 2030, a new generation of hydrogen energy technology can achieve breakthroughs. Before that, the "thrown away" hydrogen will be the main source of hydrogen energy.
The second is to solve the problem that the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle needs to be solved better and faster. The 10 years of experience and policies for the development of pure electric vehicles can be used for reference. I believe that fuel cell technology and hydrogen energy technology are two areas that are both interconnected and differentiated. Fuel cells are a power issue and hydrogen energy is a fuel issue. Like the engines and refueling of traditional cars, one is the automotive industry and the other is the energy industry.
The third is how to solve the problem of who should do it? I think it should be done by Sinopec, National Energy Group, National Power Investment and other enterprises, and now they are very interested. But hydrogen energy itself is now facing much greater technical challenges than fuel cells, including technology and policy. For example, in the technical point of view, the fuel cell technology for vehicles should be gradually matured in about five years. But today's hydrogen energy technologies, such as hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transport, etc., are many of the processes many years ago. These processes are low in energy efficiency and high in cost, which is not ideal and requires technical updates. If the fuel cell is ten years later than the development of the power battery, hydrogen energy is much later than the fuel cell in terms of technological innovation. Therefore, the most important thing at present is the all-round development and improvement of hydrogen energy technology, industry and policy. The first thing we need to do now is technological innovation, such as a new generation of hydrogen production technology.
Third, the three commonly used hydrogen production technology routes (industrial by-product hydrogen, coal-to-hydrogen and electrolyzed water to produce hydrogen), which one is preferable?
In the next 10 years, before the hydrogen energy technology is not safely replaced, we will use the existing hydrogen energy technology. Under the current technical conditions, it is said that “throwing hydrogen†can be used, including industrial by-product hydrogen and renewable energy to generate hydrogen, which will be the main source of hydrogen in the demonstration stage in the future.
There are many advantages to using hydrogen that has not been used before. First, the cost is low. Secondly, although the by-product hydrogen is liquefied and the liquefaction efficiency is not high, the efficiency of hydrogen production by electrolyzed water is not high, but because these substances are originally thrown away, efficiency is not the first priority. Factors to consider. At present, fuel cells are developing well, and hydrogen energy is in a cooperative position. Perhaps hydrogen energy will use these technologies before the size of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles reaches 1 million.
The number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is 1 million, that is, after 2030, I expect that the new generation of hydrogen energy technology can be engineered, and a new generation of high-efficiency hydrogen energy technology and new technology of full chain may be industrialized. This judgment is made because the current hydrogen production technology has made breakthroughs at the scientific level. For example, from the laboratory data, the efficiency of direct solar hydrogen production has been very close to that of power generation, reaching 19%, and solar cells are probably About 20%. We expect a new generation of technology to be promoted on a large scale, but before that, we can only use the existing technology to use "discarded things" to promote industrial development.
Fourth, we must actively look at the problem of Tesla's construction in Shanghai.
The Tesla Shanghai plant will be put into production in the fourth quarter of this year, which is a lot of pressure on the industry. This is a good thing. This has a great impact on the new power of the car and the traditional car companies, but from the perspective of the transformation of the entire fuel car to the new energy car, it will play a huge role in promoting.
First, Tesla can produce 500,000 units at a low price, which will prompt everyone to use electric vehicles, which will drive the entire industry to grow. Second, although it has a great impact on domestic enterprises, in fact, Tesla's core technology is in China, so it is not how much impact its core technology has on China, but its products. This is two problems, two Concepts. China's battery is very good, what impact does Tesla's battery technology have on China? As long as the core technology has no big impact, how can it compare with the product? As long as the core technology is not under control, it is not afraid. And with such a "coordination", it may force more companies to grow. I feel that as long as it is open, it is not easy to have problems.
We must have confidence that Tesla's establishment in Shanghai is definitely a good thing, not a bad thing. There may be a bit of impact in the middle, and some companies will face the risk of bankruptcy, but the merger between enterprises is also a good thing for the industry.
Reading volume: Source: China Energy News Author: Cold autumn
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